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What happens to Obama’s foreign policy when Afghanistan unravels?

It’s getting very hard to keep up with all the wars breaking out this summer. This is a worrying and troublesome sign because in such situations one misstep or one false flag and the whole powder keg can blow up into a wider regional, and even global mess.

As the list of conflicts grows weekly, the world is waking up to the reality that the ‘yes we can’ POTUS Obama does not have control of his foreign policy agenda.

On the one end he is letting Neo-Conservative war hawks like Victoria Nuland run amok, destabilizing places like Ukraine (which really did need to be interfered with), while on the other end Obama is taking advise from Neo-Liberal geo-strategists like Zbigniew Brzezinski, whose utter hate and distain for everything and everyone Russian is leading the world down a dark, fascist path of no return.

From Iraq, to Libya, Syria to Ukraine, and ISIS to Gaza, the one last domino waiting to fall is Afghanistan….and when this shoe drops, look out.  Their is a reason Afghanistan is called the graveyard of empires.

Which brings us to the latest summer holiday visit from U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, who arrived (though not officially announced) in Afghanistan today to a sceptical audience in order to help resolve a deepening crisis over a disputed presidential election which (go figure) has stirred up ethnic tensions in the country.

Reuters summarises the situation…

Afghanistan has plunged into political chaos in recent months as a protracted election process to pick a successor to President Hamid Karzai has run into a deadlock between two leading candidates, Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani.

Preliminary results from the June 14 second-round run-off put Ghani, a former World Bank official, in the lead with 56.4 percent of the vote, but Abdullah has rejected the count and his aides have threatened to set up an alternative administration.

So let’s see if we have this correct. As the U.S. pulls out from an extended occupation and military intervention in Afghanistan, leading up to the country’s latest attempt at electing a new President, candidates (i.e. bankers), representing factions with centuries old grudges are now jostling for power and control of U.S. foreign aid and billions of dollars worth of heroin productions and trade.

Didn’t we just go through these motions in another Middle East country now being overrun by militant jihadists paid for and trained by you guessed it…the U.S.A.?

The United States, Afghanistan’s biggest foreign donor, is in the process of withdrawing its forces from the country after 12 years of fighting Taliban insurgents, and it is unclear what leverage Kerry would have in resolving deep-seated rivalries.

Abdullah’s camp, angry with Ghani’s lead in the vote, has threatened to announce its own parallel government, a dangerous prospect for Afghanistan, already split along ethnic lines.

Abdullah’s refusal to accept the outcome of the vote has created a deadlock in Afghanistan, threatening to split the country along ethnic lines and setting the stage for a possibly bloody standoff or even secession in parts of the country.

The lack of political unity in Afghanistan has prompted observers to draw parallels with Iraq, where a one-sided government has failed to represent all parts of the political spectrum, weakening the country and allowing an al Qaeda offshoot to capture large swathes of Iraq in recent weeks.

Mohaqiq from Abdullah’s camp blamed any possible repeat of Iraq’s scenario in Afghanistan on the Karzai administration.

“We don’t want Afghanistan to repeat Iraq but all parties have to think about it. It is not only our responsibility. The government has been here for 13 years … and still they do not want to leave the power democratically,” he said.

“If anything bad happens to Afghanistan the responsibility will be on President Karzai’s monopolistic team.”

Maybe ISIS should look into franchising opportunities in Afghanistan…now that would bring everything full circle.

References:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/10/us-afghanistan-usa-idUSKBN0FF0QU20140710

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