Winter is approaching fast, Ukraine’s economy is now in full on collapse to the tune of $140 USD in external debt and the the military campaign (ethnic cleansing) in the east is failing miserably.
Ukraine President Poroshenko boasted that he would retake the East Ukraine by the 24th of August for a grand independence day march in Kiev. Not only is that not happening but his army is getting beaten, badly.
Her is a rundown of what is really going on…
From the Slavyangrad blog’s Military Briefing as of August 19, 2014:
…it has now been over a month that the city of Donetsk continues confidently to repulse the Kiev Junta’s offensive, which it is pursuing with maximum possible effort. This, unquestionable, is the achievement of Strelkov, who saved the capital of the DPR from being surrendered to the Junta when he timely withdrew from Slavyansk to Donetsk and organized the defense on the approaches to the city.
Essentially, the fact that for over a month now Donetsk has been fettering the enormous forces of the Junta once again demonstrates how correct Strelkov’s decision was. He made it possible not only for the DPR to be saved, but also for the first Southern Cauldron to be created. And it is the Southern Cauldron that now is one of the main suppliers of armoured vehicles and military hardware to the Militia.
In general, the Militia at this time needs to drive the Junta out of Novosvetlovka, retain Yasinovataya, Ilovaisk and the corridor to Gorlovka, and also to knock the enemy out of Zhdanovka. At the same time, it will also need to find the troops to complete the liquidation of the two surrounded enemy brigades located to the south of Krasniy Luch.
And what is most important, is that with every day there are more and more people who understand that this war will not be over in the summer of 2014 (unless some kind of sudden political decisions are made) and will continue in the fall – even though so many claimed that it would end in May, June, July, then August. This war will not be over right away, this horror, just as in Yugoslavia, will drag on and on.
Meanwhile scores of Ukrainian fighters are being killed in action. The video below documents the “disappearance” of an entire battalion where only 83 of the 4,700 men returned home. Some put the ratio of kills at 10:1 in favor of the Novorossia militia. Western Ukrainians happily voted for Poroshenko believing that the war will be quick and painless, and Ukraine would be part of the EU (never going to happen), with access to billions in financial aid, and of course visa free travel and work.
The mood is changing. Despite the media blackout instituted by the Poroshenko regime, the amount of casualties is slowly coming through. Donetsk and Luhanks are being regularly shelled by the Ukrainian military and even people in Kiev are realizing that the scale of tragedy is huge.
The video below shows the outrage that Ukraine citizens at what is happening:
Kiev is losing its credibility, if it ever had any to begin with. It tried to stir up false flags with the fake convoy attack, refuses to let in humanitarian aid that has been Red Cross approved, and still has not produced any of the Air Traffic Control tapes from the MH17 crash. Just yesterday the National Guard claimed to have taken over Ilovaysk, but that also proved false.
It’s impossible to trust any Ukrainian statements about anything anymore. The statements they make are getting increasingly out of touch with reality. Kiev is getting desperate and throwing all the forces into the battle leading to heavy losses for the their side. They are on their third round of conscriptions, and people are now burning draft cards.
This analysis from military blog Sic Semper Tyrannis (notice the kills and deserters highlighted),
The military situation appears to be in a state of dynamic equilibrium. The Ukrainian forces have, up to now, been able to mount battalion or more sized armored thrusts into weakly held rebel territory, but these thrusts, more often than not, got badly chewed up and surrounded. They’ve lost at least six brigades this way. The rebels recently captured documents where the Ukrainian military command admitted to 14,378 KIA and WIA, 158 POWs, 8,972 deserters, 31 planes, 20 helicopters, 307 tanks, 145 BMPs, 121 BMDs, 283 BTRs, 14 Grad and 11 Uragan MLRS.
There are also increasing signs of mounting guerrilla operations throughout eastern Ukraine. Small things like the burning of one of Komoloisky’s banks in Dnepropetrovsk and the ambush of Polish PMC vehicles and the sabotage of defense maintenance facilities in Kharkov are becoming more commonplace. Partisan groups are increasing sabotage activity around Slavyansk and Krasny Liman, areas where Strelkov withdrew from last month. The partisan activity is strong enough to incite junta artillery to begin shelling Slavyansk from Karachun Mountain once again.
So, where do the opposing forces stand today?
…you would think the rebels are very close to defeat. Yes, the rebels are giving up ground, but they are preserving their combat forces. The junta is squandering theirs.
The tactic used by the NovoRussian fighters is clever. They give up land in order to inflict heavy losses on the fascist army.
Finally you have the chart below which shows Ukraine’s debt going from $40 million to $140 million. The Ukraine cannot pay back it’s foreign debt. Without Donbass and Crimea, there are no oil and gas resources for the Western powers to steal, hence no way to pay back loans.
Putin is wise not to invade Ukraine. He is letting the EU pick up the bill, letting American taxpayers pay for Ukraine for the next 50 years. Thank you Victoria Nuland.
Merkel is in Kiev this weekend, Poroshenko is going to Minsk to meet with Putin right after that. Ukraine is looking for a deal, a way out of the mess. Europe, already in full on recession, is now scrambling to find some sort of exit to yet another policy debacle. Merkel is looking like the big loser in this whole Ukraine adventure.
And Obama well he is playing golf, while his hipster staff is preparing his next “folksy” teleprompter speech about ISIS, Iraq, red lines and what is left of the Middle East.